The Future of Regular Cab Pickups: Trends, Regulations, and Market Shifts

Introduction

Over the past decade, the automotive industry has witnessed a significant shift in consumer preferences toward double and crew cab pickups. While manufacturers attribute this trend to customer demand, a closer look reveals that stricter federal corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) regulations may be the driving force behind the decline of regular cab pickups. This article explores the factors contributing to this shift, the implications of fuel economy regulations, and what the future holds for regular cab trucks.

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Understanding Fuel Economy Regulations

The latest CAFE regulations, which took full effect in 2017, have had a profound impact on truck manufacturing. These regulations are based on a vehicle's "footprint," calculated as the square footage between its four wheels. The formula is straightforward: multiply the track width (distance between the centers of the wheels) by the wheelbase, then divide by 144 to get the footprint in square feet.

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• Regular Cabs: These trucks typically have the smallest footprints, making them subject to stricter fuel economy targets.
• Double and Crew Cabs: Larger footprints result in more lenient fuel economy requirements.

For example, a Toyota Tacoma Regular Cab with a footprint of 46.4 square feet must achieve 32.8 mpg by 2017 and 45.4 mpg by 2025. In contrast, a Tacoma Double Cab with a 6-foot box only needs to achieve 26.4 mpg by 2017 and 35.5 mpg by 2025. This disparity places regular cabs at a significant disadvantage.

The Economic Impact on Manufacturers

Manufacturers face substantial penalties if their fleet fails to meet CAFE standards. Regular cabs, with their smaller footprints, must achieve significantly higher fuel efficiency than their larger counterparts. Failure to do so results in hefty fines, incentivizing manufacturers to phase out regular cab models

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Additionally, producing regular cabs is not cost-effective. While the MSRP of a regular cab may be slightly lower, the production costs are comparable to those of double and crew cabs. For instance, a 2013 two-wheel-drive Regular Cab Toyota Tundra was priced at $26,450, while the Double Cab version cost $28,805. The minimal price difference does not justify the additional production complexities.

Consumer Preferences and Market Trends

Consumer demand has shifted overwhelmingly toward double and crew cabs, with approximately 90% of truck buyers opting for these configurations. This trend has led manufacturers like Nissan to discontinue regular cab models altogether. For example, Nissan dropped the regular cab Frontier in 2002 and never introduced a regular cab Titan.

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Interestingly, short-box regular cabs remain popular among consumers. A survey of 2008 Ford F-150 regular cabs listed on MotorVero revealed that only 25 out of 255 were long-box models. However, the feasibility of producing short-box pickups is increasingly questioned due to fuel economy regulations.

The Case for Regular Cabs

Despite their declining popularity, regular cabs offer unique advantages. They are lighter and more compact, making them ideal for certain commercial applications. However, these benefits are overshadowed by the challenges posed by CAFE regulations and production inefficiencies.

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Manufacturers must design and produce specialized parts for regular cabs, which increases costs and complicates production lines. Furthermore, the limited demand for regular cabs makes it difficult to justify their continued production.

Predictions for the Future

Given the current trends, it is likely that manufacturers will phase out or significantly reduce their regular cab offerings by 2025. Toyota, with its limited fleet business, may be the first to discontinue regular cabs. Ram, struggling to meet CAFE requirements, could follow suit by 2017 or 2018.

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Ford and GM may continue producing regular cabs to meet commercial needs, but these models are expected to become increasingly rare and expensive. By 2025, purchasing a short-box regular cab may require a special order, and the price could exceed that of double cabs.

Conclusion

The future of regular cab pickups is uncertain. While they offer unique benefits, the combination of stringent fuel economy regulations, production inefficiencies, and shifting consumer preferences has made their continued production increasingly untenable. Truck enthusiasts should enjoy regular cabs while they can, as these iconic vehicles may soon become a relic of the past.

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